Serbia-Montenegro: Tolerance of Stretched War-Crimes Deadline Highlights Eu Concern to Restore Serbia's Regional Role, Supporting Privatisation and Anti-Corruption Drives
Hilfe Daily Briefing › October 19, 2009
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Summary
Although it has stretched the deadline for arresting its main war-crimes suspect, risks to Serbia's EU association process have diminished as the EU seeks to compensate it for territorial loss and make it an anchor of Balkans security strategy. The government in Belgrade has further improved its international support by introducing a more credible anti-inflation strategy while maintaining fast growth and delivering the first tangible results from a new anti-corruption drive. Although it still threatens suspension of talks if war-crimes cooperation falls short, the EU is concerned not to treat the present government too harshly in case the next election brings a shift to more reactionary parties, exploiting discontent at the likely secession of Montenegro, Kosovan independence moves and the criminalisation of wartime leaders. Forced to unite against the threat of a Socialist and Radical revival, the ruling coalition plans to step up privatisation preparations and maintain a tight fiscal rein in its final year, trusting in continued growth and a sharper fall in inflation to win back middle-class votes. The single-digit inflation target may again prove too optimistic, but another year of 5%+ growth is realistic as inward investment continues to finance the wide external deficit.
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Serbia-Montenegro: Tolerance of Stretched War-Crimes Deadline Highlights Eu Concern to Restore Serbia's Regional Role, Supporting Privatisation and Anti-Corruption Drives
Acceptance of delays to Mladic arrest confirm Serbia's renewed importance to EU
The arrest of several close associates and questioning of close family members gave notice that the net was closing around general Ratko Mladic even before the end-April deadline for his capture. Local press reports suggest plans for his extradition had been agreed with the UN war-crimes tribunal even as government officials continued to deny knowledge of his exact whereabouts. Mladic is wanted by the tribunal in the Hague ...See the full content of this document
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