Who rules Iran? The June 2009 election and political turmoil.

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Who rules Iran? The June 2009 election and political turmoil.

Introduction

The Islamic Republic is facing its most serious challenge since its birth in the 1979 revolution. Indeed, during and immediately after the election of June 2009, the mass demonstrations in Iran shocked the whole state apparatus in such a way that it has yet to recover. Just as the Iranian revolution of 1979 was impossible to anticipate, so was the protest movement in the wake of June 2009. However, this was not the first time the Islamic Republic had to face political crisis in the last 30 years--it had witnessed protests in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000; but the magnitude of the 2009 events was different: it brought millions of people onto the streets of Tehran and other major cities in Iran. Pandora's box was well and truly opened, with millions now daring to question the legitimacy and the role of Velayate Fagih, the most important and powerful constituent of the Islamic Republic.

For the first time, both from within and outside Iran, the echoes of another Iranian revolution were heard. The possibility arose that the Islamic Republic whose leaders espoused anti-imperialist rhetoric against the West could themselves be challenged. As a result, confusion and controversy over the nature of the causes of the movement led commentators to depict it variously as progressive, middle class, pro-American imperialism, and a Zionist plot. Whatever its nature, this movement has had the most profound long-lasting impact. The infighting between different factions with the Islamic Republic are in some ways reminiscent of the early 20th-century Constitutional Revolution (1), when the schism was so deep that a leading member of the clergy, Noori, was hanged for being openly against reform. Today's Islamic Republic's response has also been brutal, with the arrest and detention of thousands of opposition figures, some of whom held government posts under Rafsanjani and Khatami. The current leaders are determined, with support from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC), to exclude the reformist elements from power. In order to remain, they must accept and obey sets of conditions laid down by Khamenei and his cronies.

Whatever may be the outcome of this political manoeuvring, recent developments magnified the already existing differences between various groups within the Islamic Republic. Is this the beginning of the stripping off of the republican component from the system? Or is Iran moving towards governance by God, rather than by the people? If any of the new factions succeed, how would they be able to legitimise their rule in the 21st century? What if they fail? Will Iran move towards secular democracy? Would economic sanctions imposed by the USA and its allies have any impact on the democratic process in Iran? Is the opposition led by the Green Movement able to challenge the Islamic Republic system and call for the separation of the state from religion? This article will deconstruct the Islamic Republic, tracing it back to its birth in 1979 to show, firstly, how different ideas, not all necessarily Islamist, were influential in the establishment of the Islamic Republic; and secondly, that Islam is not a homogenous religion, but has always been presented in different ways, and thus that the current factional battle is historically based. In doing this, it will examine the ideological ambiguity of Islam, its populist message, its attempts to reconcile itself to the modern world, and its relations with social classes. It will reject the view that the current regime in Iran is a return to medieval Islam, or that it represents a progressive break from modern global capitalism. Rather, it will assess the causes and development of the post-election outcomes from a historical perspective, in order to provide an understanding of the political implications for both the Islamic Republic and the opposition, looking at the ongoing battle and debates within the ruling elites as well as the impact of the USA-led economic sanctions. F...

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