Summary
The data was due to be released on 30th June, but this was delayed until 12th July because the ONS's quality assurance procedures had revealed "potential errors in some of the detailed figures", which led to much speculation that the release might contain significant revisions to the recent history. The company sector should also benefit from the lower rate of corporation tax and lower long-term interest rates.\n However, revisions to past data indicated the recession was slightly deeper than previously estimated; the peak-to-trough GDP contraction was 6.4% rather than 6.2%, implying a slightly larger output gap.
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Extract
Blue Book Revisions Do Little to Alter the Outlook
Highlights
* The delayed release of the Blue Book-consistent National Accounts did little to alter the outlook. The most noteworthy feature was an increase in the peak-to-trough decline in GDP from 6.2% to 6.4%. Of much greater importance are the implications of the emergency Budget- this has led us to reduce our forecast for GDP growth for next year to 2. 1 %.* This week's data showed inflation continued to fall and that while the labour market is improving it remains weak. Good weather boosted retails sales but RICS reported slowing house price rises.The release of Monday's Quarterly National Accounts, which were to be consistent with the new Blue Book, had been eagerly awaited - with the ONS having delayed their release due to concerns over "potential errors" there was much speculation about the likely scale of data revisions that would be announced. In the event the release was somewhat of a damp squib, wi...See the full content of this document
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