World Today, The

Dicing with Democracy

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin of Russia and Presidents Ismal Karimov of Uzbekistan, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, Mahmoud Ahmadinijad of Iran and Hugo Chávez of Venezuela have clamped-down on the kind of low-level civil society support previously tolerated; all have benefited from collective learning. [...] the crisis is likely to push democracy promotion further down the agenda of political leaders in the west, as domestic constituencies compel governments to focus on domestic priorities and re-e...

Tempting Tehran

In taking this course, the US should examine the only real negotiations Iran ever conducted over its nuclear programme: those with Britain, France, and Germany - the EU3, supported by the European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana - between late 2003 and mid-2005. [...] there have repeated contacts, but no actual talks.

Letter

Unfortunately, the December Copenhagen Summit and the Spring 2010 Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference will take place before the Huntsville G8 Summit. [...] either breakthroughs in both areas are made before those meetings, or there will not be very much that the G8 Presidency may achieve afterwards.

The Quiet Democrat

In telling his Cairo audience of his 'unyielding belief' in universal rights and freedoms, United States President Barack Obama said America would support them 'everywhere'. [...] he had acted as though following a conscious decision to talk less about democracy promotion, but not necessarily to do less.

All Change or No Change?

[...] there will be major changes in 2010 - because the ageing leadership will be handing over the reins of power to a younger generation of military officers, and because the controversial new constitution will significantly reorganise the institutions of political power. [...] possibly most important, is the fact that the elections will bring about a generational transition in the military.

Power Plays

According to the USAID office in the capital, Bishkek, the number of returned migrants has increased tenfold since September. According to a recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) regional economic forecast, growth is expected to come to a virtual standstill this year at 0.9 percent, compared to 7.6 percent in 2008.

Monumental Miscalculation

The dramatic expansion of information technology, in particular ownership of mobile phones, many of which have camera and video capability, has made such control more difficult, and the internet continues to be a source of information. To understand how a political misjudgement of such magnitude was made, we have to see this as part of a wider process with roots deep in the intellectual debates of the Islamic Revolution and its direction STRUGGLE FOR LEGITIMACY The Islamic Revolution and the...

Surviving Strain

In the wake of the global crisis, sceptics pick on three heightened risks: * BREAK-UP RISK - if divergences in the euro area trigger centrifugal forces * BANKING RISK - if growth stays slow, and problems in Eastern Europe deepen * INFLATION RISK - if some countries do not adjust or grow, with rising public debt. If there is a deep threat to euro area stability today, it lies not just in low and divergent growth trends, but in the vicious circle that these could set in motion in some member s...

Strategic Loneliness

[...] Russia has been dissatisfied with the OSCE for many years, criticising it as ineffective and preoccupied with human rights and election monitoring. [...] Russia would want the new security arrangements to be based on the energy trade rather than democracy.

Victor or Victim?

With all congressional seats on the line as well as the government and legislatures of up to ten states, not only do they represent the most important shift in the balance of political power until presidential elections in 2012, they are increasingly seen as a referendum on Calderon's leadership and the viability of PAN at the forefront of Mexican politics. FEW OPTIONS Election time will show whether actions such as shutting down Mexico City for a number of days were a bold move to stave-off...

Dangerous Game of Dare

[...] on the current trajectory, the world is not bending the curve enough to deviate from dangerous business-as-usual greenhouse gas emission levels. [...] the 192 governments at the negotiating table are not keeping us safe from dangerous climate threats.

Trust the People

While the junta's external allies and supporters and the extractive industries may be held indirectly responsible for the situation, it is the political and economic power of the predatory state and the military elite which have resulted in and maintained hell on earth for the Burmese people. [...] the paranoid and feudal character of the military leadership changes, no official transitional plan offers any hope for reform.