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from April 2004
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Royal Institute of International Affairs
ISSN 0043-9134

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Year 2006

Vol. 62 Nbr. 5, May 2006

Iran and the Traffickers

The UN Security Council's deliberations over the status of Iran's nuclear technology coincide with the renewal of the mandate for the Security Council's 1540 Committee. Remarkably, Iran has recently acknowledged its reliance on illicit trafficking to acquire a number of technologies applicable to a nuclear weapons program. The Iran case highlights the difficulty in assessing a country or group's intent in seeking nuclear, chemical and biological materials and know-how.

Letters

Iraq

Into the Abyss

Two important, and interrelated, facts need to be understood about Iraq: the United States and British governments are no longer deciding the issues that will mould the country, and more importantly, Iraq is now in a state of civil war. It is clear that Saddam Hussein was indeed the glue that held together the fractious state, and that the idea of Iraq being unified by secular nationalism was purely that--an idea.

Iran

Nuclear Poker

Another turning point arrives in the dispute between Iran and the international community over Tehran's nuclear plans. The UN Security Council is considering a report by the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed Elbaradei, following its call for a freeze on Iran's uranium enrichment program and the announcement that uranium had indeed been enriched sufficiently to generate energy.

Syria

Bouncing Back

Political fortunes ebb and flow rapidly in the middle East. Within months both Israelis and Palestinians have installed new leaderships. And a year after its most serious reverse, Syria is feeling new confidence.

Nuclear And Radiological Weapons

Tracking the Trade

American and Britain continue to warn that terrorists could steal or construct a crude nuclear bomb or radiological dispersal device--a dirty bomb--and use it in a major city. Expenditure on airport and post security is often based on worst case scenarios. However, the range of opinion is widening between those who believe it is inevitable, and an increasing number who question the case with which terror groups could construct, successfully deploy and detonate any kind of radiological device.

Energy Security

Problem, Which Problem?

Scanning the media since the beginning of this year could have persuaded the casual reader that security of European energy supplies is a completely new subject to which nobody had previously paid much attention. In reality, energy security has been debated since at least 1973, generating much policy heat, but little light. The March European Union Green Paper--A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy--added to the policy complexity by setting two energy agendas in a...

Replacing The British Nuclear Deterrent

Prestige Purchase

The Government confirmed three years ago that a decision would have to be made before 2010 about the replacement of the Trident nuclear submarine forces. Critics who said Britain could rely on extended deterrence provided by the United States and did not need its own force, were countered with the argument that London provided a second decision -making center and thus complicated Soviet calculations in this area. The Ministry of Defence that regularly refers to the need for effects based oper...

European Labour Restrictions

Polish Plumber Fails to Threaten

The European Union should scrap the restrictions most countries imposed two years ago to prevent the free movement of workers from new member states. When the limits are reviewed this month, the Union should accept there is no evidence of the feared flood of workers, instead supply and demand has decided where they settle.

The Balkans: Montenegro

Making States

This month, voters in the republic of Montenegro will choose its future direction. But the decision of this tiny electorate, smaller than the number electing a mayor or council in many cities, may have much wider international implications.

Croatia

Europe Beckons

Croatia has entered a critical period in its membership negotiations with the European Union. Enmeshed in a screening process where its laws are subject to close scrutiny by the European Council, Croatia must demonstrate that they conform with the political criteria. While it has international backing, there are still several important obstacles to overcome.


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